by I. Nelson Rose | May 15, 2026 | Blogs
New academic paper from Mark Griffiths and Michael Auer shows for the first time who plays online casinos and how much they bet. Looking at 926,086 real money gamblers in six countries, Griffiths and Auer found in the US the top 20% of players account for 95% of the...
by I. Nelson Rose | Mar 27, 2026 | Blogs
On March 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket, by far the largest prediction markets, announced bans on insider trading; even though insider trading is already banned in their Terms and Conditions. Prediction markets have two major problems, which can’t be cured by public...
by I. Nelson Rose | Mar 5, 2026 | Blogs
I was recently quoted in an article published by Danish television network TV 2 Danmark examining the lawsuit between the State of Nevada and prediction market platform Kalshi. The case raises an important legal question: whether contracts allowing people to trade on...
by I. Nelson Rose | Mar 4, 2026 | Blogs
Insider trading is illegal – in securities trading and regulated sports betting. But it is actually one of the advantages that futures markets have over more conventional predictors. If you want to know what is going to happen, give the opportunity to make big bets...
by I. Nelson Rose | Mar 4, 2026 | Articles, Blogs
The Capitol Forum recently published an article examining the difficulties Sporttrade has faced trying to operate an exchange-style sports prediction platform under existing state gambling laws. Sporttrade was created to allow users to buy and sell contracts on the...
by I. Nelson Rose | Feb 20, 2026 | Blogs
On February 19, 2026, Kalshi removed to federal court the lawsuit filed against it in state court by the state of Nevada. This prevents the state judge from issuing a temporary restraining order (“TRO”), which would have prohibited Kalshi from taking bets/trades from...
