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Posts by I. Nelson Rose
I’m Speaking at the 19th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
I will be presenting my paper, "Why Courts and Congress Should but Won't Outlaw Prediction Markets," at the 19th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking at the Bellagio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, May 26–28, 2026. My presentation is part of the...
New Study: Who Really Plays Online Casinos, and How Much They Bet
New academic paper from Mark Griffiths and Michael Auer shows for the first time who plays online casinos and how much they bet. Looking at 926,086 real money gamblers in six countries, Griffiths and Auer found in the US the top 20% of players account for 95% of the...
Why Kalshi Won’t Pay Winners
On March 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket, by far the largest prediction markets, announced bans on insider trading; even though insider trading is already banned in their Terms and Conditions. Prediction markets have two major problems, which can’t be cured by public...
Danish Television Covers Nevada Lawsuit Against Prediction Market Kalshi
I was recently quoted in an article published by Danish television network TV 2 Danmark examining the lawsuit between the State of Nevada and prediction market platform Kalshi. The case raises an important legal question: whether contracts allowing people to trade on...
Did Insiders Bet on War with Iran?
Insider trading is illegal – in securities trading and regulated sports betting. But it is actually one of the advantages that futures markets have over more conventional predictors. If you want to know what is going to happen, give the opportunity to make big bets...
Sporttrade’s Struggles Highlight Challenges for Prediction Markets
The Capitol Forum recently published an article examining the difficulties Sporttrade has faced trying to operate an exchange-style sports prediction platform under existing state gambling laws. Sporttrade was created to allow users to buy and sell contracts on the...
Kalshi Buys More Time
On February 19, 2026, Kalshi removed to federal court the lawsuit filed against it in state court by the state of Nevada. This prevents the state judge from issuing a temporary restraining order (“TRO”), which would have prohibited Kalshi from taking bets/trades from...
Major Developments in the Legal Fight over Prediction Markets
Today, February 17, 2026, saw the following: 1) The US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's attempt to prevent the state of Nevada from suing the sports event prediction market operator. 2) The Nevada Gaming Control Board and the state attorney general...
Super Bowl Prediction Markets & State Gambling Bans
Prediction markets continue to expand into sports, even in states where traditional sportsbooks remain prohibited. NBC News recently published an article examining how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are offering Super Bowl-related event contracts nationwide,...
Predicting the Future of Prediction Markets
The biggest news in sports betting circles, or, if you believe the prediction markets operators, “commodities trading,” is Kalshi getting kicked out of Massachusetts. State Superior Court Justice Christopher K. Barry-Smith issued a preliminary injunction on January...
Prediction Markets, Sports Betting & Federal Regulation
Prediction markets are growing rapidly, especially as platforms begin offering contracts tied to sporting events. MarketWatch published a new article examining this expansion and the regulatory questions it raises, and I was pleased to contribute to the discussion....
How to Avoid the Republican’s New Tax on Professional Gamblers
As part of Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans in the U.S. Senate snuck in a change in the federal income tax laws to get a couple of billion dollars from professional and other high-stakes gamblers over the next ten years. A billion dollars sound like a...
Professional Gamblers to Pay for Elon Musk’s Tax Breaks
Professional and high-stakes poker players, sports bettors and handicappers are about to be taxed out of business. Either that or they will move their action overseas to foreign jurisdictions that don't report gambling winnings to the IRS. As a lawyer, I must warn...
Regulator Drops Appeal in Prediction Market Case, a Suspicious Win for Donald, Jr.
I must start by saying I like prediction markets. Allowing people to trade event contracts, that is, make bets on future real-world events, has led to extraordinarily accurate forecasts. Of course, it invites insider trading. But that is not always bad. In 2003 the...
How Securities Trading Became Legally Not Gambling
Attitudes toward gambling have shifted not only from state to state but also over time. Twice before in American history, almost all gambling was outlawed. Even Nevada closed its casinos in 1909. But we are now in what I call the Third Wave of Legal Gambling, with...