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Posts by I. Nelson Rose
Danish Television Covers Nevada Lawsuit Against Prediction Market Kalshi
I was recently quoted in an article published by Danish television network TV 2 Danmark examining the lawsuit between the State of Nevada and prediction market platform Kalshi. The case raises an important legal question: whether contracts allowing people to trade on...
Did Insiders Bet on War with Iran?
Insider trading is illegal – in securities trading and regulated sports betting. But it is actually one of the advantages that futures markets have over more conventional predictors. If you want to know what is going to happen, give the opportunity to make big bets...
Sporttrade’s Struggles Highlight Challenges for Prediction Markets
The Capitol Forum recently published an article examining the difficulties Sporttrade has faced trying to operate an exchange-style sports prediction platform under existing state gambling laws. Sporttrade was created to allow users to buy and sell contracts on the...
Kalshi Buys More Time
On February 19, 2026, Kalshi removed to federal court the lawsuit filed against it in state court by the state of Nevada. This prevents the state judge from issuing a temporary restraining order (“TRO”), which would have prohibited Kalshi from taking bets/trades from...
Major Developments in the Legal Fight over Prediction Markets
Today, February 17, 2026, saw the following: 1) The US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals denied Kalshi's attempt to prevent the state of Nevada from suing the sports event prediction market operator. 2) The Nevada Gaming Control Board and the state attorney general...
Super Bowl Prediction Markets & State Gambling Bans
Prediction markets continue to expand into sports, even in states where traditional sportsbooks remain prohibited. NBC News recently published an article examining how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are offering Super Bowl-related event contracts nationwide,...
Predicting the Future of Prediction Markets
The biggest news in sports betting circles, or, if you believe the prediction markets operators, “commodities trading,” is Kalshi getting kicked out of Massachusetts. State Superior Court Justice Christopher K. Barry-Smith issued a preliminary injunction on January...
Prediction Markets, Sports Betting & Federal Regulation
Prediction markets are growing rapidly, especially as platforms begin offering contracts tied to sporting events. MarketWatch published a new article examining this expansion and the regulatory questions it raises, and I was pleased to contribute to the discussion....
How to Avoid the Republican’s New Tax on Professional Gamblers
As part of Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans in the U.S. Senate snuck in a change in the federal income tax laws to get a couple of billion dollars from professional and other high-stakes gamblers over the next ten years. A billion dollars sound like a...
Professional Gamblers to Pay for Elon Musk’s Tax Breaks
Professional and high-stakes poker players, sports bettors and handicappers are about to be taxed out of business. Either that or they will move their action overseas to foreign jurisdictions that don't report gambling winnings to the IRS. As a lawyer, I must warn...
Regulator Drops Appeal in Prediction Market Case, a Suspicious Win for Donald, Jr.
I must start by saying I like prediction markets. Allowing people to trade event contracts, that is, make bets on future real-world events, has led to extraordinarily accurate forecasts. Of course, it invites insider trading. But that is not always bad. In 2003 the...
How Securities Trading Became Legally Not Gambling
Attitudes toward gambling have shifted not only from state to state but also over time. Twice before in American history, almost all gambling was outlawed. Even Nevada closed its casinos in 1909. But we are now in what I call the Third Wave of Legal Gambling, with...
NJ to Allow Esport Competitors to Bet on Themselves
What could possibly go wrong? New Jersey Assembly Bill No. 2172 has passed out of committee and now will be voted on by the entire Assembly. A companion bill is being considered in the State Senate. If either bill passes both houses and is signed by Governor Phil...
Sheriff Carmine Marceno’s Finances: Gambling & Ethics Questions
Financial disclosures are meant to ensure transparency and accountability. When the News-Press investigated Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno’s financial records, they uncovered concerns about his skyrocketing net worth, questionable gambling winnings, and potential...
Regulatory Challenges Facing Casino Bidders
I am honored to have been quoted in a recent Politico article that delves into the challenges facing major casino operators in their bids for downstate New York casino licenses. The article specifically addresses how regulatory issues, including potential fines and...